Pacific Views

Second Dumbest Thing Ever

So, the dumbest thing the Bush administration could do at this point, in my opinion, would be to attack Iran. The second dumbest would have to be backing a coup against Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan. Here's hoping that this is wrong:

THE US has indicated for the first time that it might be willing to back plans by elite echelons of the military in Islamabad to oust Pervez Musharraf from power, as the Pakistani President was beset by major new difficulties over his attempts to sack the country's chief justice.

Reports yesterday quoting highly placed US diplomatic and intelligence officials - previously rusted on to the view that General Musharraf was an indispensable Western ally in the battle against terrorism - outlined a succession plan to replace him.

US officials told The New York Times the plan would see the Vice-Chief of the Army, Ahsan Saleem Hyat, take over from General Musharraf as head of the military and former banker Mohammedmian Soomro installed as president, with General Hyat wielding most of the power. ...

The Pakistani military has been supporting the Taliban for years now and Musharraf is actually one of his country's more liberal and secular politicians. As the Talibanization of Pakistan's border regions continues, as support for enforcing Islamic law on the country grows, it seems like a particularly poor time to even consider putting a U.S. stamp on the toppling of a government more friendly to western interests than anything likely to come out of a coup or popular referendum.

Oh right, and lest we forget, Pakistan has The Bomb. They're Sunni, and Shiite Iran has long suspected/known that their agents have supported Afghan smugglers and militants responsible for the murders of Iranian diplomats and police. Explain to me how anyone convinces Iran that going nuclear is a bad idea when a neighboring nuclear state gets potentially put in the hands of radicals who hate them?

I mean, in theory such a coup turns Pakistan over to people even more supportive of the Bush agenda than Musharraf, who puts himself at risk every time he takes a pro-U.S. stance that angers his top generals and pro-Taliban intelligence agents. In theory. In practice, the Pakistani government is not peopled with Friends of Bush in particular or Friends of the U.S. in general, and there really isn't any telling how such a thing would shake out. And it would certainly neutralize Iran if Pakistan attacked them, tie them up at the very least, but that would really take the last brake off of their restraint towards the U.S. troops on their doorstep.

Has anything been learned at all from the object lesson of having turned Iraq over to Iran's favorites in the country? Maybe not.

Posted by natasha at March 13, 2007 08:15 AM | International | TrackBack(1) | Technorati links |