October 13, 2006

That &#!!!!%! crystal ball never works right!

Back before the 2004 election, Washington Monthly asked a panel of 16 writers to imagine what would happen if Dubya got his second term. Having the benefit of hindsight, it's easy to see that most of the panelists got things way wrong.

Nonetheless, there were occasional examples of prescience, like this one from blogger Kevin Drum:

If Osama bin Laden detonates a suitcase nuke in Los Angeles, all bets are off, of course. That aside, the most likely course is a continuing low-level insurgency in Iraq, a mediocre economy, and a halfhearted second-term agenda from the White House. If you combine that with a thin legislative majority, an outraged Democratic Party, and a public increasingly leery of Bush's Texas-style conservatism, what you get--aside from a few rancorous battles over Supreme Court nominations--is a presidency adrift.

It's the perfect breeding ground for a major scandal, and George Bush is exactly the right guy, with exactly the right personality, to step right into it.

Or, especially, this from CNN's Paul Begala:

Bush sees the world in black and white. You're either for him or against him; a saint or a sinner; a friend or a foe. If given four more years in the White House, there's little doubt that the politics of retribution and bitter partisanship will dominate every day.

Check out the whole lot of predictions here.

So the next time a pundit tries to foresee the future, you might look into the accuracy of their past preditions. In all likelihood, they won't turn out to be any more accurate that the ones from the Washington Monthly's panel.

Posted by Magpie at October 13, 2006 11:04 AM | US Politics | Technorati links |