Pacific Views

Very bad news from Iraq.

Earlier today, men in uniform planted two bombs inside the Golden Mosque [shrine of Imam Hasan al-Askari] in Samarra. Both bombs exploded, devastating one of the most holy shrines of Shi'a Islam. Iraq has erupted into violence, and there are fears that a long-feared civil war will begin.

Before and after the bombing.
[AP photos: Khalid Mohammed, Hameed Rasheed]

Reporter Chris Albritton is in Iraq, and posted the following to his blog earlier today:

If this doesn't spark a much-feared civil war, we'll be lucky. This is the tensest Baghdad has been in two years, and this attack is especially provocative coming as it does during Arba'een, the 40-day mourning period for Imam Hussayn that follows the Shi'ite commemoration of Ashura.

Of course, Sistani might still ride in and save the day — again. We can hope.

But quite apart from all that, this will derail Washington's hopes for an inclusive Iraqi government that includes Sunnis in meaningful positions. The Shi'ite alliance in parliament is already pushing back against statements made by Amb. Zalmay Khalilzad on Monday, in which he said the security ministries (Interior and Defense) should go to "people who are non-sectarian ... who do not represent or have ties to militias. (Yeah, he's talking to you, Badr Corps.) Yesterday, Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari fired back and said, in effect, bugger off.

"When someone asks us whether we want a sectarian government the answer is 'No, we do not want a sectarian government' — not because the U.S. ambassador says so or issues a warning," he told a news conference. "We think that sovereignty means no one interferes in our affairs."

Memo to Prime Minister: That ship has sailed, habibi. I guess interference in internal Iraqi affairs is only OK when you're the one being installed in power after riding in on the back of an American tank.

Snark aside, today's attack will mean it will be much, much harder to make the case for including Sunnis in the government, especially if it means giving up any of the important ministries. (Maybe the Sunnis would like the Youth and Sports ministry? The Olympics are coming up in a couple of years.) And even if the Shi'ite coalition wanted to include Sunnis, today's attack on the shrine will make it very hard to keep their constituencies loyal if they're seen as rewarding "terrorists," which many Shi'a now call all Sunnis.

Also significant is that Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most revered Shi'ite in Iraq, called for seven days of mourning and protests — although he urged them to remain peaceful. I can't help but wonder, "Is he serious?" This is an emotional, volatile time and any protests are likely to turn violent, either from their own accord or through agent provocateurs who might use them as kindling for more fireworks.

And from a later update to the post:

Moqtada al-Sadr is holding takfiris (those who call others infidels, i.e., the Salafists and Wahabists), Ba'athists and the "occupation" responsible for the shrine attack. "It was not the Sunnis who attacked the shrine of imam Al-Hadi, God's peace be upon him, but rather the occupation; the takfiris, al-nawasib (a derogatory term the Shiites use to refer to Sunnis), God damn them; and the Ba'thists. We should not attack Sunni mosques. I ordered al-Mahdi Army to protect the Shi'ite and Sunni shrines and to show a high sense of responsibility, something they actually did." Moqtada has also called for a vote in parliament on expelling "foreign forces," the rascal.

Al-Sistani has condemned the attack on the Askari shrine, but also said — somewhat ominously — "The Iraqi Government is expected, now more than any time before, to fully shoulder its responsibilities and halt the wave of criminal acts that target the holy places. If the government's security organs are not capable of providing the necessary protection, the believers are capable of doing so with Almighty God's assistance." (emphasis added.) That's really not good.

Via Back to Iraq and Reuters.

Posted by Magpie at February 22, 2006 01:27 PM | Iraq | TrackBack(1) | Technorati links |