October 31, 2004

Even Fox News ...

... now says Tuesday's US presidential election is too close to call.

The right-wing network's latest polling shows Kerry and Dubya tied among likely voters at 46-46. Among all voters, Kerry has a two-point lead over the prez — however, that lead is well within the poll's 3-point margin of error.

"While it has been said too many times to count, this race remains too-close-to-call with the outcome dependent on several key swing states," comments [Fox/Opinion Dynamics pollster] John Gorman. "With less than two days to go, it is likely that any further last minute events will have little impact. However, it can be said the recent news of a bin Laden tape, while not necessarily hurting the incumbent, has clearly not helped him hold off Sen. Kerry."

The election results still depend on which party is better at getting their voters to the polls. But the plethora of polls showing a shift to Kerry in the last couple of days, plus the heavy turnout of Democratic voters in states that allow early voting, is starting to make this magpie think that the election might not be all that close at all.

Posted by Magpie at October 31, 2004 09:20 AM | Elections | TrackBack(1) | Technorati links |

Magpie, we shold meet sometime. Glad you're coming around to my landslide theory. ;-) The problem has always been with polls -- who are they polling, are they getting an 80+% response rate, and why do they insist on skewing post-poll results towards the Republicans to get "likely voters" when every indication this year has been that D's are kicking astounding butt in special elections and voter registration?

Posted by: Norman at October 31, 2004 10:18 AM