Pacific Views

The significance of Saddam's capture.

Now that the hoopla over capturing Saddam Hussein is calming down a bit, we're finally seeing some intelligent analysis of what that capture may mean for the situation in Iraq. Writing in
Asia Times, Jim Lobe and Payman Pejman think that the capture should help settle the question as to who is running the resistance — espcially the armed resistance — to the occupation of Iraq. They also suggest that, with Saddam out of the picture, resistance may sharpen rather than fade away.

Although military commanders have long insisted that resistance to the occupation was being carried out primarily by "Saddam loyalists", they had never ascribed to him any actual leadership role, apart from his status as a symbol, particularly for Ba'athists.

That appeared to be borne out by the circumstances of his capture. Not only was Saddam bedraggled, he also lacked any apparent means of electronic or satellite communication, such as a telephone. For some observers, this proved the resistance was clearly operating independently of Saddam. "Given the location and circumstances of his capture, it makes clear that Saddam was not managing the insurgency, and that he had very little control or influence," said Senator Jay Rockefeller, the Democratic leader on the Senate Intelligence Committee.

"That is significant and disturbing because it means the insurgents are not fighting for Saddam; they're fighting against the United States," he added. [...]

"The Sunni Arab resisters to US occupation in the country's heartland had long since jettisoned Saddam and the Ba'ath as symbols," [Iraq specialist Juan Cole] stressed.

"They are fighting for local reasons. Some are Sunni fundamentalists, who despised the Ba'ath. Others are Arab nationalists who weep at the idea of their country being occupied. Some had relatives killed or humiliated by US troops and are pursuing a clan vendetta. Some fear a Shi'ite and Kurdish-dominated Iraq will reduce them to second-class citizens."

Both this thesis, as well as the administration's continued insistence that the insurgency consists mainly of Saddam and Ba'ath loyalists, criminals, and foreign "jihadis", will be tested in the coming weeks and months.