Pacific Views

What's next in Iraq?

Beginning in the early days of the occupation of Iraq, the incisive reporting and commentary of Zvi Bar'el has been noticably absent from the pages of Haaretz. With the capture of Saddam Hussein, however, Bar'el has returned with his own guesses as to what may happen in Iraq over the next few months.

Iraq's future in days ahead will play out according to one of three possible scenarios. The first scenario is the extension of what has happened in recent weeks: that is, daily attacks on foreign targets, Americans and otherwise, could continue. The second possible scenario would be escalated attacks on coalition targets, with the intention of hastening the American pull-out from Iraq. Third, political opposition groups could mobilize peacefully and unite around the demand that coalition troops pull out immediately, so that Iraq is left to Iraqis.

These three scenarios have come to the fore because the American occupation has, up to now, derived its legitimacy from the military need to remove the "remains" of Saddam Hussein's regime. Iraqi movements which opposed the American occupation in principle feared that a premature U.S. military pull-out might have allowed troops loyal to Saddam to re-gain power. Now, such movements are likely to take political and military steps to resist the continued presence of coalition forces in Iraq.

In these respects, Hussein's capture is liable to intensify local opposition to the continued U.S. occupation of the country.

Make sure to check out the whole article. It's a good tonic for the overly optimistic spin that the US and UK governments are given to the importance of Saddam's capture.