Pacific Views

Saddam Hussein has been captured.

Now that Saddam Hussein is in custody, what's next? Given that everyone and their sister is giving their opinion in the US media, this magpie figures we'll get in our two cents as well.

So here's our fast-and-dirty analysis:

The first consideration, we think, is the question of whether Saddam had any real control over the various groups that are fighting the US-led occupation. If, as Washington has been maintaining, the attacks on occupation troops were centrally coordinated efforts by remnants of the Ba'athist regime and Saddam was the head honcho, we might see some lessening of violence. But if Saddam wasn't in charge, we doubt that his arrest will make much difference, except in the very short run. Furthermore, if the armed resistance to the occupation has been conducted by smaller groups with loose coordination, and those fighters includes significant amounts of Saddam opponents, we suspect that things will go on much as they have been, with frequent attacks on occupying troops and more deaths among US, UK and other occupation forces.

Another question is that of the difference it will make to the Iraqi people knowing that Saddam Hussein is not going to return to power. Our guess here is that, unless there is a significant improvement in the progress of reconstructing Iraq, the US-led occupation will at best buy a little time free from criticism and opposition. Now that Saddam has suddenly disappeared from the Iraqi political scene, however, our guess is that more Iraqis are going to feel free to oppose the occupation. There have already been numerous reports in the press about the growth of a non-Ba'athist opposition to the occupation. We expect that this opposition is going to grow, and that more and more Iraqis are going to demand that the US and other occupying countries pull their troops out.

There is one caveat to our predictions: If the the US and occupation government can bring real improvement to the life of the average Iraqi in terms of living conditions (when's the electricity coming back?), security (can i walk the streets without getting robbed or kidnapped?), and employment (where's my job? my unemployment check), the Iraqi public may be more inclined to take a wait-and-see attitude similar to the one that existed at the beginning of the occupation. Given how the US has run things in Iraq so far, we'd be very surprised if Washington has the good sense to take political advantage of the opportunity they've been handed because of Saddam Hussein's capture.