Pacific Views

(Ahh, a Dean friendly site without a bunch of Clarkistas. Sorry for not having visited sooner.)

Not sure I would agree that Americans are thinking more deeply about anything these days. IMHO Dean appeals to a high percentage of people in the same way that GWB does. 1) He keeps the message simple enough that they can hear and understand it. People like that even though they understand that solutions are not simple and require more skill than they themselves possess. 2) He has a generally likeable and seemingly honest persona.

The other “axis” people use in evaluating candidates includes: 1) Competence, intelligence and track record 2) Issues evaluation. “Scores” on Axis I – Message/Persona and Axis II – Skill/Policy get “added” and then compared with the other candidates. In 2000 GWB won on I and Gore on II. However, GWB would have “scored” so low on II that without Cheney propping up GWB’s “skill” rating, Gore would likely have won easily. OTOH if Gore had selected say Edwards for VP, he might have propped up his score on Axis I.

In general GOP candidates specialize in I and DEMs in II. If it were not for the strong on defense reputation that the GOP has cultivated for the past thirty years, DEMs would win so decisively on “Policy” that the GOP would have trouble winning much of anything. Negative campaigning is most effective on the “Persona” dimension and that was exactly where Gore and Clinton were pounded.

Kerry and Gephardt will be very vulnerable on Axis I. That may be why the “DLC” looked to Edwards and Clark. Unfortunately neither of them is immune to Axis I attacks -- Edwards as PI lawyer and Clark with complicated messages and unclear personal political history. (I personally see neither of them as strong on general likeability.) This is compounded by the fact that, Edwards and Clark are so much weaker on Axis II and that will allow GWB to be too competitive with them on this axis.

There could also be an “insider/outsider” dimension but that could also only be an artifact of poor scores on the two axes. Gray Davis was challenged on message, likeability, honesty, and competence. Arnold only had a simple message and likeability, but that was enough.

Dean is strong on both axes – his complement for a running mate would ideally also have balanced strength.

Marie, I'm very glad to see your thoughts on this. I've always really felt like you have a special ability to analyze these human systems and look forward to seeing what you have to say. I hope you'll come back and visit us here again.

Deans rhetoric sounds good. But his track record shows a DNC Demuplican Republicrat. Charisma isn't enough, we need someone with a track record that says I'm a caring conscious Progressive, for the people and the health of our nation and world, rather than a telegenic guy who mouths the words...