Pacific Views

Whither Washington Republicans? (Part 1 of 2)

Chris Vance, the Chair of the state Republican Party, if he has any hair left from pulling it out in frustrated tufts, has to be wondering what it would take to get an electable Republican – someone with a disarming attitude and the means to keep the moral conservatives of the state Republican Party in his or her corner - to run for Governor.

Three promising gents - King County Sheriff Dave Reichert, Western Wireless chairman and CEO John Stanton, and former Microsoft VP Bob Herbold – have all turned down the chance to run for Governor. The last did so even after Governor Gary Locke announced his intention to not run for a third term. Jennifer Dunn sits on a large pile of cash and is so far considered unassailable running the 8th Congressional District. She’s been asked to consider both Senate (against Patty Murray) and Gubernatorial bids by folks in the national party, but her ultimate goal is to be Secretary of Commerce, and her best chance may have passed her by in 2000, with the advent of the Bush administration. She was recently on the short list as head of the Air Transport Association (though not a finalist), and became engaged in April of this year. She may decide to sit back and play kingmaker, starting with helping Congressman George Nethercutt get acquainted with Western Washington as he gears up to take on Senator Murray, or perhaps if Bush is defeated in 2004, she’ll pack it all in at the end of her term and enjoy retirement with her new husband.

Vance knows that he needs to avoid the problems of the last few election cycles, when moral conservatives were able to get their candidates onto the ballot for various state offices, especially for Governor, and were trounced come the general election.

But what do you do in the Governor’s race when you face a second juggernaut?

Attorney General Christine Gregoire, like Governor Locke, is a very appealing candidate. Especially with voting women in the key suburbs King and Snohomish County, where statewide elections are often made or lost for the Democrats. Her office made an expensive mistake when it missed filing an appeal deadline regarding a personal injury claim against the state regarding abuse at a Bremerton adult care home, costing the taxpayers $19 million. Yet that storm cloud has come and gone, without lasting effect on her reputation.

Yes, the Democratic primary for Governor will be contested. King County Executive Ron Sims will find it hard to show he’s a man who can accomplish things when the county is suffering major budget woes and the light rail project increasingly becomes an albatross no one wants near their necks. Congressman Jay Inslee would be out of his depth at this time to run – he serves in a Congressional District that has stabilized after a period of flipping back and for the between the two major parties in recent election cycles, and fighting off a challenge from a weak Republican candidate in 2002 isn’t enough to enhance his stature or chances, at least for now. Former state legislator and state supreme court justice Phil Talmadge is a smart guy who usually knows what he’s talking about. But he has low name recognition outside of King County and always has been considered a very aggressive personality. Memories are long among those who’ve been bruised on the way to his making legislation happen.

State Senator Dino Rossi is one option for Vance. The man knows how to make money – of that we can be certain. He’s taken advantage of the rapid growth of Western Washington over the last two decades to become a wealthy man in property development, and is presently Vice President of John L. Scott Real Estate Investment. But to promote him as the man who led Washington to a “no new taxes” budget will only infuriate those who considered it a bad move to work harder against him, and the suburbs won’t be attracted to him in large numbers for it, because the Democrats in the Legislature couldn’t get traction for tax increases due to Governor Locke’s unwillingness to do the same. Without someone to blame that will get a visceral reaction in his favor, especially given that he’s also very anti-abortion, he’s more likely to be the target instead over the course of a campaign. (Besides, what he wants, really, is Jennifer Dunn’s job when she’s ready to let it go.)

Who’s left, then? Well, one option few have discussed lately, save occasionally in the Seattle Times, is Mike McGavick, the CEO of Safeco. He’s been an effective staffer for Slade Gorton, and has made at least one speech against Locke’s policies that had the business community on their feet. He has the style, of sorts, of former Massachusetts governor William Weld, someone who seems able to connect to the average person while carrying themselves off as a fiscally conservative Republican. But no one in the state Republican hierarchy seems to be pointing to him these days as an option, and I suspect it’s because he’s considered an unpredictable (read “uncontrollable”) personality. He’s not afraid to say what he thinks, and if he ruffles enough of the moral conservatives’ feathers, the race might be over before it begins.

That leaves Rob McKenna, presently a member of the King County council, often portrayed as Ron Sims’ arch nemesis. He’s articulate and knows when to tug the string regarding the right issues to get a desired reaction, or at least increased fundraising. One recent example has been his accusation of a secret tax that the Democrats in the council want to implement to cover the existing budget deficit. The county Democrats vehemently deny such a tax is on or under the table, but especially at a time when Tim Eyman’s star is at least subdued for the moment with the loss of getting yet another anti-tax measure, I-807, on the state ballot, McKenna benefits.

He’s been in a safe district for some time, and his re-election in 2003 is pretty much assured, but he himself probably realizes that he needs to climb up the political ladder with reasoned steps. Towards that end, with Attorney General Gregoire soon to be no longer in that office, fighting for that slot might be a possibility. The Democrats so far have a slew of candidates for the slot, with former state insurance commissioner Deborah Senn, former Seattle attorney Mark Sidran and possibly Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg the strongest options. None of these three would let McKenna win without a fight, but it would have to be an easier race than against Gregoire. McKenna would portray Senn as too radical for the post, and Sidran as too imhumane.

It’s not uncommon in this state for Attorney Generals to eventually want to become Governor. Rob might be looking at such a chance for himself, but the smart money says it won’t be considered until the 2008 election cycle, after gaining exposure as a credible statewide officeholder.

So what’s Vance to do? When conservative “shock jock”/continuous editorialist Ron Carlson is the most reasonable candidate you’ve had in the last three election cycles, you have to wonder.

Posted by Palamedes at August 22, 2003 02:08 PM | TrackBack